Polymarket Whale Boosts Trump 2024 Odds, Raising Manipulation Concerns

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Table of Content

In today edition we talk about

• Analyst: Don’t Fear the Premium on MicroStrategy (MSFT) Stock

• Polymarket Whale Boosts Trump 2024 Odds, Raising Manipulation Concerns

• Survey: 26 Million U.S. Voters Prioritize Crypto Policies Ahead of Elections

• Trump’s Crypto Token Falls Short, Ethereum Centralization Raises Concerns

• BlackRock Aims to Use BUIDL as Collateral for Crypto Derivatives Trading

Analyst: Don’t Fear the Premium on MicroStrategy (MSFT) Stock

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer remains bullish on MicroStrategy (MSFT), predicting the company’s stock could rise to $245 per share as its Bitcoin strategy continues to succeed. The current price of MSFT is around $206, but Palmer believes its use of Bitcoin as a key asset could push shares much higher. Despite concerns over the stock's 2.3x premium compared to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, Palmer argues that critics are missing the bigger picture. MicroStrategy's aggressive acquisition of Bitcoin since 2020 has built a strong engine for long-term shareholder value. As of September, the company owns over 250,000 BTC, worth roughly $17 billion by mid-October.

Polymarket Whale Boosts Trump 2024 Odds, Raising Manipulation Concerns

A significant bettor on Polymarket, known as "Fredi9999," has reportedly increased former President Donald Trump’s odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The bettor holds more than $20 million in pro-Trump bets, which has raised concerns about potential manipulation. On Oct. 16, Trump’s odds of winning hit a record 60.2% on Polymarket, sparking questions about whether this surge reflects real-world events. Alex Momot, CEO of Peanut Trade, pointed out that Polymarket's influence might shape public perception, making it crucial to assess the reliability of prediction markets as Election Day approaches. Concerns about manipulation are growing with less than three weeks remaining until the election.

Survey: 26 Million U.S. Voters Prioritize Crypto Policies Ahead of Elections

A recent survey by The Digital Chamber found that around 26 million U.S. voters belong to a "crypto voting bloc," with pro-crypto policies being a key factor in their voting decisions. Released on Oct. 17, the survey revealed that 16% of respondents view crypto as "extremely" or "very" important when choosing candidates, with a notable percentage of both Democrats (25%) and Republicans (21%) saying they are more likely to support pro-crypto candidates. While crypto is a priority for some, a separate Pew Research survey found that economic policy, healthcare, and Supreme Court appointments were the top issues for most voters. Crypto was not flagged as a major concern in the broader electorate.

Trump’s Crypto Token Falls Short, Ethereum Centralization Raises Concerns

Former U.S. President Donald Trump's much-anticipated token launch saw disappointing sales, with only $12.7 million worth of tokens sold on the first day, leaving $287 million unsold. Meanwhile, concerns are growing in the crypto space regarding Ethereum’s centralization. During the first two weeks of October, two block builders produced over 88% of the mainnet blocks, raising alarms about Ethereum’s decentralization and network control.

BlackRock Aims to Use BUIDL as Collateral for Crypto Derivatives Trading

BlackRock is in discussions to use its digital token, BUIDL, as collateral for derivatives trading on major crypto exchanges, including Binance, OKX, and Debirit. According to an Oct. 18 report from Bloomberg, BlackRock is partnering with brokerage firm Securitize to integrate BUIDL into crypto derivatives markets, challenging stablecoins like Tether’s USDT, which are commonly used as collateral. Crypto derivatives accounted for over 70% of the total trading volume in September, with $3 trillion in contracts traded on centralized exchanges. BUIDL, already used by major brokers like FalconX, could further expand its presence in the crypto space.

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